MOTOCROSS ACTION’S MIDDLE-OF-THE-STREAM AMA NATIONAL ANALYSIS:

Here is a quick primer on what’s up in the AMA 250/450 Nationals at the halfway point:

WHO CAN STILL CATCH RYAN DUNGEY IN THE 450 CLASS?

Ryan Dungey might as well have a big Target logo on his back. No one has been able to derail the Dungey train since Hangtown.

    In the remaining six AMA 450 Nationals there are 300 points up for grabs (a maximum of 50 points at each round). Thus, any rider who is already 300 points behind Ryan Dungey is eliminated as a Championship contender. Given that Dungey only has 268 points, every rider in the class still has a mathematical possibility?albeit slight.

    So, who can catch Dungey?

    (1) Chad Reed is 64 points behind Dungey. Mathematically that lead could be reduced to nothing in three motos if Dungey DNFs (it would take Reed two moto wins and a tenth or two seconds and a third to be in front of Ryan).

Kawasaki’s Reed had better hope for a Dungey misfortune (or three).

    (2) Brett Metcalfe is only three point behind Reed (at 67 points back).

    (3-4) Ben Townley and Andrew Short are tied at 79 points behind Dungey. This is a real battle for Honda honor because factory-sponsored Andrew Short can’t really afford to finish behind two Honda support riders (Metcalfe and Townley). This is a contract year.


After working himself into shape the first half of the season, Ben Townley could knock Dungey off his game for at least a moto win. A late first moto crash at Red Bud ruined his fairytale race.

    (5) Josh Grant is 86 points back. Dungey would have to fail to score any points for more than three straight motos for Grant to catch back up. The good news for Grant is that Reed, Metcalfe, Short and Townley are less than one moto ahead of him (Reed is only 22 points in front of Grant).

Grant is always a threat for a moto win. Where will he end up next season?
 
WHO CAN STILL CATCH CHRISTOPHE POURCEL IN THE 250 CLASS?

Pourcel isn’t always the fastest rider, but he certainly is the smartest. That’s why he has a sizable points cushion.

    Over the first six 250 Nationals of the year, points leader Christophe Pourcel has earned only eight points less than Ryan Dungey has in the 450 class?but Dungey has a 64-point lead on second place, while Pourcel is only 33 points in front of Dean Wilson.   

    So, who can catch Pourcel?

    (1) Dean Wilson has only won one moto out of the first 12 motos (Pourcel has won seven of the 12). Wilson has improved with each race (and over the last five Nationals Dean has not finished worse than third in any moto).

Wilson is quickly proving that he is the future of the 250 class.

    (2) Tyla Rattray is the star of the year. How can we say that when he is in third place and 48 points back? That’s simple, Rattray has been like a locomotive. He just keeps coming. By the time the moto reaches the last ten minutes he is the fastest man on the track. It would help if he could start closer to the front. Plus, if you gave him the 12 points he lost in his Banzai attempt to win the overall at Red Bud, he would only be three points behind Wilson (actually closer because it was Wilson he was trying to pass).


Tyla deserves the nickname “Freight Train” as opposed to “Styla” because he picks up a head of steam over the course of each moto (and he isn’t actually very stylish).

    (3) Trey Canard is 55 points back, which means that he needs Pourcel to DNF two motos just to catch up to five points behind. Canard reportedly has a Team Honda contract for next year in the 450 class (assuming that there is a Team Honda in 2011), so  he can relax and concentrate on winning motos (like he did in moto two at Red Bud). The best way to erase a points deficit is to beat the guys in front of you without thinking about the points.

Canard earned his first 250 moto win and overall in the same day. Will he win any more before jumping up to the 450 class next year?

    (4) Broc Tickle isn’t going to catch Pourcel in the 250 points at his current pace (Tickle is one full moto behind Trey Canard). Broc is 80 points behind Christophe at the halfway point and his average moto finish is a fifth.

Tickle is a few ticks off the lead pace. He’s more than a few points off Pourcel’s points lead.

WHO SHOULD BE PROUDER THAN PUNCH THIS SEASON?

    There are riders that deserve kudos for what they have achieved in 2010?even if it isn’t as good as they hoped for (they are in no particular order).

    (1) Brett Metcalfe: He left his familiar 250 class behind and managed to find the speed to be a 450 contender. Metcalfe is a better 450 rider than he was a 250 rider?this could be true of a lot of veteran riders in the 250 class.

Honda-support rider Brett Metcalfe has found a new home in the 450 class. Welcome to the big leagues, mate.

    (2) Ben Townley: The guy has a story to tell. It started when he got a Team Honda ride in 2008, but was unable to race because of a shoulder injury. After surgery he made a comeback, but still couldn’t ride. Following the next surgery (and two years off the bike), he was on the road to recovery when he hit his stomach against the crossbar of his bike back home in New Zealand. More surgery, only this time just two months before the 2010 Nationals started. Ben healed up and started the 450 Nationals cautiously, but has moved his way up to the podium by sheer desire. A heartwarming story.

    (3) Kyle Regal: When this Texas privateer is good, he is very good. Regal sits eighth in 450 National points (despite two zero scores and three more motos with less than ten points scored). On the plus side, he has engaged in personal duels with Chad Reed?winning the majority of the mano y mano showdowns (when he and Reed are with each other). Regal has a public relations problem that could hold him back?but good performances can erase any liability.

Kyle Regal is hot one moto and cold the next. Given his hot results, he could end up on a solid team next year.

    (4) Kyle Chisholm: The guy is a racer and he deserves credit for giving it his all. His unhappy tenure at L&M is behind him now. He just needs to stay healthy.

    (5) Grant Langston: You have to love Grant. His results may not show what he is capable of doing, but his battle with cancer and his return to racing is more inspirational than any good moto finish. Grant deserves the applause of the crowd?not because he is winning, but because he represents the true hardcore tradition of what a motocross racer should be. We are glad to see Grant at the races?because that was something that might well have never happened with a lesser man.

Kudos to Grant Langston. The 2007 National Champ is a racer through and through.

    (6) Tyla Rattray: The former 250 World Champion has not had much luck in the USA. His Supercross seasons have been thwarted by injury and his National programs have been…thwarted by injury also. After missing the 2010 Supercross season, and in danger of losing his Pro Circuit ride for 2011 (because they have invested two years in the South African with no results), Tyla has shown the promise that got him to America in the first place. He is not flashy, but he is a classic motocross racer?he puts his head down and charges from the beginning to the end. Best of all, he doesn’t slow down late in the moto or in the heat of the day (which is why he won Freestone).

    (7) Killy Rusk: It seems to the MXA wrecking crew that Killy Rusk was racing the 250 Intermediate class at REM this time last year. Now, one year later, the totally unheralded rider is scoring 250 National points with a full privateer effort. Killy is currently in the top 25 in 250 National points (and that includes skipping Mt. Morris and Budds Creek).

Privateer Killy Rusk is earning quality points in his rookie year.

    (8) Mike Brown: The former 125 National Champion is 38-years-old and racing offroad races now, but he still loves motocross. Mike has raced two AMA Nationals this year (Hangtown and Red Bud) and scored AMA points in both. In fact, Mike has earned 26 points so far this season (and he only needed one point to keep his honored National number three). It is always nice to see the heroes back in the fold.

WHO’S DOING BAD THIS SEASON?

    No reason to name names, because they have six races to turn their seasons around?and in this economy, turning your season around could well translate into turning your career around. Jobs are hard to come by (especially since the new breed of 250 riders all have deals for next year). The 2010 season is definitely not the year to lose your mojo.

WHO’S COMING BACK NEXT WEEKEND?

    Two riders will be returning to the National scene at Millville on July 17; Kevin Windham and Ivan Tedesco. The news of the bunch is K-Dub. He will be filling in for the injured Davi Millsaps. Ivan Tedesco was hurt during the Supercross season (punctured lung and broken ribs), so Millville will be his first 450 National.

WHO HAS A RIDE FOR NEXT YEAR?

    Who is hiring whom in 2011? If we knew that we’d probably be working for the team and not be able to tell you. So, everything is conjecture at this point…and nobody really knows if some of the teams will be back next year. Here is a crib sheet:

    Team Suzuki: Ryan Dungey is signed for next year and Austin Stroupe is not. Roger DeCoster might stick with Stroupe, given the fact that before he got hurt in the 250 Supercross series he was a contender. On the other hand, Stroupe is a public relations nightmare (and there are bigger fish to fry in the 250 class). Word on the street is that Team Suzuki needs another big buck sponsor, like Teka appliances, to seal the deal with upper management.

    Team Yamaha: There isn’t a Yamaha team, but more of a collective of Yamaha supported teams. Moto Concepts, Star and Valli are carrying the sport on their backs and with their bank accounts. They have some good riders and some bad riders?if they can avoid losing their golden riders to Pro Circuit, they will be able to pick and choose from the rest. The Yamaha model, of dropping their factory team and supporting private efforts, certainly increased the number of Yamaha riders on the track?and other management groups are thinking along the same lines for their teams in the future.

    Team Honda: If the reports are true, Honda will have Trey Canard for 2011. Davi Millsaps is most likely gone and Andrew Short has been there way too long to not have something to show for it. The golden geese are Christophe Pourcel and James Stewart. Honda can afford them, but the suits could just say “forget it” and race with what they have. According to sources, if Team Honda hadn’t had a long-term contract with Red Bull to honor, its motocross team would have been dropped when the road race team folded last year.

    Pro Circuit: Mitch Payton is losing Christophe Pourcel and Jake Weimer to the 450 class, but he keeps Dean Wilson. Rattray is still a question mark (he has never had the chance to show his Supercross chops). No matter how you dice it, Mitch has at least two spots to fill, and he can get whoever he wants for whatever price he wants to pay?that’s how great the reputation of his team is. People think that he will talk to Wil Hahn and Broc Tickle, but Mitch will talk to everyone.

    Team Kawasaki: They have Ryan Villopoto and Chad Reed signed for 2011. Assuming that Chad doesn’t quit, which he seems to threaten to do every season, they are set. Chad says he wants to do NASCAR, but he also said he wants to do Australian V8s?we wonder if before he decides which car series he wants to race, if he will ask them to switch to a one-day format so he can fly in on Friday and fly home on Saturday night.

    Geico Honda: The Factory Connection/Geico/Honda team has the young guns ready to go for 2011. They might drop one rider and add someone new?but they are sitting pretty for the future with Justin Barcia and Eli Tomac. Trey Canard is moving on to the 450 class and Blake Wharton might be without a spot there next year. Apparently Wil Hahn was interested in riding for the Geico squad, but then the Lucas Oil/Troy Lee Designs team matched the offer.

    Team KTM: KTM announced months ago that they will hire two 250 riders and two 450 riders for next season. We’d be willing to bet that Tommy Searle won’t be one of the four. This is a good year for KTM to try to expand. Although most American riders don’t want to go there, riders with GP experience don’t have a problem. Marvin Musquin is coming for sure and they could talk to Townley, Pourcel or Rattray. Obviously Josh Grant, James Stewart, Davi Millsaps, Brett Metcalfe and Kyle Regal are worth talking to. Plus, the old-line guys, who have played out their time on the Big Four, would be open to any paying deal. Mike Alessi has a contract for next year with KTM, but any contract can be dissolved by mutual agreement.

    Team Joe Gibbs: JGR is serious. We think that Josh Grant will leave them and be replaced by as big a name as the NASCAR team can snag. Team Honda used to promise Jeremy McGrath try-outs in their Indy car…maybe Gibbs will use the same bait to try to snatch a big fish with NASCAR ambitions. James Stewart comes to mind. JGR has a good rep, but they need to be careful not to look frivolous in their hiring. Justin Brayton is signed for one more year, and we have heard that Josh Grant might do his own deal with the Metal Mulisha. Stranger things have happened.

    Team L&M: James Stewart is a free agent. He might want to stay at L&M, but no one knows if L&M will still be a Yamaha team in 2011. They could switch brands, James could switch teams and they could also become a full-season race team (Supercross and Nationals). One thing’s for sure, 2010 was a total bust…not only did they lose the Supercross title (thanks to injuries), but they have been invisible since then (unless you count the Bubba’s World cable TV show). It takes a brave sponsor to sign on with a team that makes a brief appearance with no back-up plan to race again until 12 months later.

REMAINING AMA 250/450 NATIONALS
July 17…Spring Creek…….Millville, MN
July 24…Washougal……….Washougal, WA
July 31…no race
Aug 7…no race
Aug 14…Unadilla……………Unadilla, NY
Aug 21…no race
Aug 28…Moto-X 338………Southwick, MA
Sept 4…Steel City………….Delmont, PA
Sept 11…Pala………………..Pala, CA