THE MATH EQUATION THAT WOULD HAND THE 250 NATIONAL MOTOCROSS CHAMPIONSHIP TO ELI TOMAC… OR BLAKE BAGGETT

For Baggett, Barcia and Tomac, this kind of disaster has to be avoid. This is Eli Tomac (17) at Hnagtown.

Let’s get disaster out of the way first. If either Blake Baggett or Eli Tomac have major issues at Lake Elsinore, the AMA 250 National Motocross Championships will swing to the other rider. A DNF would be sudden death for either one. However, Baggett’s worst moto finish in 2012 was a  sixth in moto one at Washougal, while Tomac had a 10th in moto two at Hangtown. Long-shot Justin Barcia’s worst finishes were two 7ths in motos at Southwick and Unadilla. Given this track record, even a bad start or a crash isn’t going to drive a knife into any of the three riders?they are almost assured of a top five finishes barring catastrophe.

Blake Baggett is in the driver’s seat for the 2012 AMA 250 Nationals Championship.

Blake Baggett has a 14-point lead, so he has the upper hand (it’s better to go in with the points lead than chasing from behind). Blake could just sit on the rear fenders of Tomac and Barcia and take the victory?no matter what the Geico duo do. Two thirds would guarantee a National Championship. In fact, a third and a fourth would ice the deal also (predicated on Tomac winning both motos).

Eli Tomac he has to win. Must do! Imperative! Eli needs a 1-1 because if he doesn’t get maximum points in both motos, he will give give Baggett more breathing room to have a bad moto.

If Tomac wins both motos he will have 508 points. If Baggett goes 4-4 for the day he will have 508 points. Ties are broken by the most overall wins…and if Tomac wins at Elsinore he will have 5 wins and Baggett will have 4 wins.

If Eli Tomac goes 2-1 (and still wins the day) he will have 505 points. But, if Baggett goes 4-4 he will win the title by three points (508 to 505). It is clear that Tomac needs to go 1-1. And he needs help from Justin Barcia, Ken Roczen and Marvin Musquin to push Baggett out of the top three.

It is wrong to think that the final race boils down to Baggett versus Tomac because Justin Barcia is only 4 points behind Eli Tomac.

It is unlikely that Justin Barcia will want to help teammate Eli Tomac, and certainly not in the first moto. Barcia is only 18 points out of the lead and 4 points behind Tomac. If Barcia went 1-1 he would beat Tomac in overall points by at least 2  points (and have 504 points for the season). If Justin Barcia had 504 points, Blake Baggett would win the title with a 4-4 (508 points) or a 5-5 (504 points). On the tie breaker, Baggett would win the overall.

Perhaps if Barcia has trouble in moto one, he would “let Eli by” in the second moto to insure a Honda win, but only if the math works out.