IS DAYTONA A PRECURSOR OF WHO WILL WIN THE 450 NATIONALS?

On Feb 28, 2025 Last updated Feb 28, 2025

There’s no question that Daytona is the toughest and most prestigious Supercross race on the schedule, but is it a true test of impending outdoor success? Based on 20 years of comparative results, the answer probably isn’t what you might think. Sure, there are odd circumstances, Supercross-only contracts for some (Jeremy McGrath) and injuries that kept race winners from racing the Nationals (or in the case of Ricky Carmichael in 2004, racing at Daytona).

Three Daytona winners, Reed, Stewart and Windham, but only one of them won Daytona and the National Championship in the same season. Do you know which one?

Since 1974 the Daytona Supercross winner has gone on to win the premier National title 19 times. Ricky Carmichael, the freak of nature that he was, won Daytona and the Nationals in the same year a record five times . People put an emphasis on Daytona being a good indicator for the Nationals, but only eight riders have managed to win both Daytona and the National Championship in the same year: Tony D (once), Ryan Dungey (once), Chad Reed (once), Jeff Emig (twice), Jeff Stanton (twice), Ryan Villopoto (twice), Ricky Carmichael (5 times) and Eli Tomac (five times). In 19 out of 51 years, the Daytona winner went on the win the premier outdoor Championship. But, that means that in 32 out of 51 season, the Daytona winner didn’t double up with a Daytona victory and a premier AMA National Motocross Championship.

Ryan Dungey won Daytona in 2015.

YEAR: DAYTONA WINNER…….AMA NATIONAL CHAMPION
1974: Pierre Karsmakers……..…Gary Jones
1975: Jimmy Ellis……………………..Tony DiStefano
1976: Tony DiStefano……………..Tony DiStefano
1977: Bob Hannah…………………..Tony DiStefano
1978: Marty Tripes……………..…..Bob Hannah
1979: Jimmy Weinert…………..…Bob Hannah
1980: Rex Staten…………………….Kent Howerton
1981: Darrell Shultz…………….…Kent Howerton
1982: Darrell Shultz…………….…Donnie Hansen
1983: Bob Hannah………………….David Bailey
1984: David Bailey……………..….Rick Johnson
1985: Bob Hannah……………..…Jeff Ward
1986: Bob Hannah…………….….Rick Johnson
1987: Rick Ryan…………………….Rick Johnson
1988: Rick Johnson…………..….Jeff Ward
1989: Jeff Stanton………………..Jeff Stanton
1990: Jeff Stanton……………..…Jeff Stanton
1991: Jeff Stanton…………….….Jean-Michel Bayle
1992: Jeff Stanton………………..Jeff Stanton
1993: Mike Kiedrowski……..…Mike Kiedrowski
1994: Mike Kiedrowski……..…Mike LaRocco
1995: Mike Kiedrowski………..Jeremy McGrath
1996: Jeremy McGrath………..Jeff Emig
1997: Jeff Emig……………………..Jeff Emig
1998: Jeremy McGrath ………..Doug Henry
1999: Jeremy McGrath………..Greg Albertyn
2000: Ricky Carmichael……..…Ricky Carmichael
2001: Ricky Carmichael………..Ricky Carmichael
2002: Ricky Carmichael………..Ricky Carmichael
2003: Ricky Carmichael………..Ricky Carmichael
2004: Chad Reed…………………..Ricky Carmichael
2005: Chad Reed………………..…Ricky Carmichael
2006: Ricky Carmichael……….Ricky Carmichael
2007: James Stewart……………Grant Langston
2008: Kevin Windham…………James Stewart
2009: Chad Reed………………….Chad Reed
2010: Ryan Villopoto……………Ryan Dungey
2011: Ryan Villopoto……………Ryan Villopoto
2012: James Stewart……………Ryan Dungey
2013: Ryan Villopoto……………Ryan Villopoto
2014: Ryan Villopoto………..…..Ken Roczen
2015: Ryan Dungey………………Ryan Dungey
2016: Eli Tomac……………………..Ken Roczen
2017: Eli Tomac……………………..Eli Tomac
2018: Justin Brayton…………….Eli Tomac
2019: Eli Tomac………………….…Eli Tomac
2020: Eli Tomac……………………Zach Osborne
2021: Eli Tomac……………..…….Dylan Ferrandis
2022: Eli Tomac……………………Eli Tomac
2023: Eli Tomac……………………Jett Lawrence
2024: Jett Lawrence…………….Chase Sexton

Ryan Villopoto won Daytona in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2024. Ryan did the Daytona/ National Championship double in 2001 and 2013.

Chad Reed won Daytona 2004, 2005 and 2009, but only doubled in 2009.

Ricky Carmichael won Daytona in five times (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2006) and did the Daytona /National double all five times.

Jeremy McGrath won the Daytona Supercross in 1996, 1998 and 1999.

Justin Brayton won the 2018 Daytona Supercross and became the oldest rider to win a 450SX Main Event when he did it at 33-years-old.

Tony DiStefano won Daytona in 1976 and won the National Championship that same year.

Bob Hannah won in 1977, 1983, 1985 and 1986, but never doubled the titles..

Marty Tripes won Daytona in 1978.
Jimmy Weinert was the 1979 winner.